Tarique Rahman, senior leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, is set to take oath as Bangladesh’s Prime Minister after securing a decisive electoral mandate. His victory comes in the absence of the Awami League, led by former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, which did not contest the election.
The political shift in Dhaka has triggered strategic discussions in New Delhi, especially concerning bilateral ties, minority safety in Bangladesh, and the possible electoral impact on Indian border states like West Bengal and Assam.
What Rahman’s Leadership Could Mean for India
Bangladesh shares nearly 4,000 kilometres of border with India, making political stability in Dhaka vital for India’s security and regional interests. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was among the first world leaders to congratulate Rahman, expressing hope for continued cooperation and shared development. India also deputed Om Birla to attend the swearing-in ceremony, underscoring diplomatic outreach.
However, observers note that the future trajectory of India-Bangladesh relations will depend largely on policy direction under Rahman’s leadership. One key concern for New Delhi is the protection of minority communities, particularly Hindus, who have faced episodes of unrest in recent years. Rahman has publicly assured safety and equal rights for minorities, but Indian policymakers are likely to assess his government’s actions on the ground before recalibrating engagement.
Strategically, cooperation on border security, trade, and counter-terrorism will remain critical pillars of the relationship.
Possible Political Impact on West Bengal and Assam
Rahman’s rise may also influence domestic political narratives in West Bengal and Assam, both of which share sensitive and porous borders with Bangladesh. Issues like illegal migration, minority persecution, and cross-border infiltration have historically shaped electoral debates in these states.
In West Bengal, BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari had earlier criticised the interim leadership under Muhammad Yunus, raising concerns about the influence of Jamaat-e-Islami. However, Jamaat secured only 68 seats and did not emerge as a decisive governing force, potentially limiting its direct leverage in shaping national policy.
In Assam, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has repeatedly flagged concerns over border infiltration and demographic changes. While Jamaat’s limited role at the national level may reduce immediate alarm, intelligence inputs suggest its performance in certain border districts warrants close monitoring over the long term.
Analysts caution that the broader concern is not immediate instability but the possible evolution of ideological ecosystems in border regions that could influence regional politics.
The Road Ahead
For India, the central question is whether Tarique Rahman’s government will prioritise stable bilateral ties and robust border management. A cooperative approach could ease tensions and dampen politically sensitive narratives in neighbouring Indian states. Conversely, any deterioration in minority protections or cross-border security could quickly become an electoral flashpoint in West Bengal and Assam.
Ultimately, the strength of India-Bangladesh relations under Rahman will shape both regional security dynamics and domestic political discourse in eastern India.
